This is but a short page where a short page is needed to compliment my main page http://www.nylicsocialworkeramazonas.com/id20.html on Bird Flu H5N1. Mistakes are being made on not long into the future Bird Flu reduction of the earth being certain. Of these mistakes one mistake originates with the fact that H5N1 has been around a while now and thus "our number is coming up" soon. This is a common mathmatical error. In actuality since the first year of H5N1 and for each following year H5N1 has had the same probability of mutating to a more virulent bird flu and each year into the future this will be the case also. It has simply not happened yet after quite a few years have passed so it is beginning to wear on us that it is bound therefore to happen soon. But that is not logical mathmatical thinking. It will not get the rocket ship to the planet Mars but instead only over the hill a few miles away from launch where it crashes. Another mistake is that H5N1 Bird Flu is a dangerous flu. This is not the case. It is nearly a harmless flu to people. It has a rare high pathogenic substrain that can kill people and can kill entire flocks of  chickens. However it is rare for even one person to get sick and die of this rare high pathogenic substrain. This high pathogenic substrain of H5N1 kills entire flocks of chickens but it does not kill entire families or villages in the vicinity of the infected chicken flock. The low pathogenic substrain infects people easily with a very slightly elevated fever and sniffles. It has never killed any individual. Of 40 million Chinese who carry H5N1 antibodies having been infected by it only 11 have died this 21st century. Thousands of Americans will be found to be carrying H5N1 antibodies as 2% of domestic Ducks and Geese sold at China open air markets harbor the H5N1 virus. More U.S. citizens visit China now than any other world nation. The figure is 1,800,000 U.S. citizens visiting the mainland of China each year and within a few days of arriving most visit an outdoor China market where domestic geese and ducks are sold. Not one U.S. citizen has so far died of H5N1.                                                                                           Eventually H5N1 will mutate and take a step up or step down, to a slightly overall more dangerous flu than it is now to a slightly less dangerous flu than it is now (it is not a dangerours flu right now at any level of significance). The dangerous flu is the U.S. flu we call the Hong Kong flu which is Bird Flu H3N2 and which has since 1968-69 been prevalent in the U.S. and each year since then has killed about 35,000 people annually in the U.S. H3N2 can mutate also and if it mutates a step up instead of a step down and if its pathogenic virulence triples then we can call it a dangerous flu which will cause over 100,000 deaths a year in the U.S. But if H5N1 mutates a step up instead of a step down and triples in its pathogenic virulence then about 30 Chinese will die of it over the remainder of the decade. And to reiterate of the more than one million U.S. citizens each year who in China open air markets meet H5N1 infected geese and ducks none have died of this Bird Flu. And in fact reiterating we have a sister to it H5N2 Bird Flu here in the U.S. which is native to the U.S. and the Americas and the Chinese in their successful vaccine have used not H5N1 as a base to prevent H5N1 but instead have used U.S H5N2 sister Bird Flu.                                                                                  Another mistake is it is said by some that Hong Kong H3N2 flu is extinct. It is not the case. Since the late 1960s in the U.S. every year 1968-69 through 2005-2006 around 35,000 people have to reiterate died of the Hong Kong flu in the U.S. It is still H3N2 but we have a more "tame" name now for it called the H3N2 "Annual Flu". H3N2 can be a nasty flu virus and so was H2N2 which H3N2 is a mutation from. But H2N2 was not as nasty a virus as H3N2 Hong Kong flu, the Hong Kong flu now called H3N2 Annual Flu reiterating.  The point is nothing out of the ordinary is going to happen in terms of a world devistating flu unless a present day Bird Flu becomes a "recombinant" with a Spitsbergen bird flu of 536 A.D. or Mastodon age bird flu, as happened in the summer of 1918 in the western fjords of Spitsbergen which that year - never in recorded history before or since - saw a sudden and extrordinary warming of the water which melted out ancient fragments of ancient bird flu virus recombinants the mutation resulting being the Spanish Flu which killed well over 100,000,000 people in the world and one of every eight people it infected. It was a terror and devistation of the world being a flu people because of great time span measured in the thousands of years had lost immunity to. In the U.S. beginning its infection spread in Boston in September 1918 with the arrival of Holland pink footed geese which always nest at Spitsbergen up against the north pole arctic ice cap and some of which each year decide to visit the U.S. instead of returning to Holland. These geese returned from Spitsbergen late summer 1918 infected with the recombinant or the whole ancient flu itself stopping over in the Boston area September 1918 and infecting chicken flocks with the Spanish Flu which in turn infected people.                                                                                                           To reiterate read my main page on Bird Flu http://www.nylicsocialworkeramazonas.com/id20.html . And for 536 A.D. (beginning of the Dark Ages of Europe) go to my page FIRE ON THE AMAZON - BOLIVIA ALTIPLANO  http://www.nylicsocialworkeramazonas.com/id12.html . In 536 A.D. volcanic ash covered the entire world and writing in Europe tells us a mans shadow could only be seen towards the high sun noon hour. We know from written record there was much death in the world 536 A.D. from cold and starvation from lack of food. In Twanaku in the Bolivia Altiplano considered by many to a majority of more serious of scholars to be the Atlantis of Plato, immediately following 536 A.D. they began building a massive irrigation system in the Tiwanaku river valley which feeds Lake Titicaca with numerous scientifically designed canals surrounding scientifically raised earth gardens so that the canal waters would capture the best heat of the day sun and radiate that captured heat at night to crops growing on the raised earth surrounded by the night warming canals, preventing frost kill.                                                                                                               The year 536 A.D. is not a hypothesis. It is a fact of written record. Spitsbergen right now is a hypothesis. At Spitsbergen the pale sun in 536 A.D. would have retarded normal nature decay and reduction of bird flu bacteria and virus and live bird flu virus would have become frozen in the ice to be melted out 1,400 years later in the summer of 1918. As to a Mastodon age bird flu before man killed off these northern elephants for food we have no writing to tell us anything although some in stone alphabets may have existed and likely did. To reiterate the recombinant flu or whole bird flu of the summer of 1918 as disgorged from the ice as an outcome of the sudden and abnormally warm summer west fijord waters of Spitsbergen would have been too ancient a flu for humans to have retained adequate immunity to. The time span too great.                                                                                       The point being here is the sudden and extrordinary warming of the western Spitsbergen fjords in the summer of 1918 was man made and not nature made (click on the link of my main bird flu page given above) and it is unlikely it will ever happen again. So what is happening now is nothing out of the ordinary but is a group of scientists and followers waiting much like for the coming of beings from somewhere else in the universe, an anticipation we do not see much of today but have seen in decades past of the 20th century. At some future year they will recover their minds and go home. That is things are being handled well? Are they not. There are no man made goings on up against the north pole arctic ice cap that could cause this phenomena again. And as to mother nature a piece of a comet could break off such as devistated Tunguska in Siberia and in the Arctic would cause some melt down where it hits. Geese would still nest on the fringe areas of the comet hit. But we can not do anything about that.                                                                                                 Reiterating again there is a sister Americas-United States Bird Flu H5N2 to China H5N1, and the sister H5N2 is a U.S.-Americas native flu. U.S. Bird Flu H5N2 has a virulent high pathogenic sub strain as does China sister H5N1. Both high pathogenic strains will kill entire flocks of chickens. Based on U.S research of native U.S. H5N2 bird flu undertaken in the U.S. as concerns U.S. citizens H5N2 has never caused a death of any person. However in the first half decade of the 21st century China with 1,300,000,000 (one billion three hundred million) people has had only 11 H5N1 deaths. It is common for families in China to keep chickens, ducks and geese and the open air markets in China with live chickens, ducks and geese sold are exceptionally numerous. Exposure to live chickens, ducks, and geese in the U.S. is much much less. The U.S. has a population of 300,000,000 people (three hundred million people) less than 25% the population of China. Calculating the statistical weights involved - population differences, differences in exposure to chickens, ducks and geese - based on the number of people in China who have died of H5N1 over the past half decade the U.S. should expect the death rate during that time period statistically and conservatively adjusted to the statistical weights, of one fifth (20%) of one whole person over the same half decade dying in the U.S. of H5N2 Bird Flu. Or to put it another way of one person in the U.S. dying every 25 years of U.S. native H5N2 infection. Thus we simply do not know on the basis of research on H5N2 done in the U.S. if it can be deadly to humans. It must be assumed it is probably as deadly to humans in its high pathogenic sub strain as is H5N1 in its high pathogenic substrain. It is the only mathematical conclusion possible. There are none other.                                                                                                         It should also be said beware of the wrath of God if chickens are killed for reasons not necessary. Anyone familiar with the most ancient Hebrew Bible the Septuagint, as interpreted by Thompson for the Continental Congress, who has read chapter Jonah, knows of Gods displeasure of having to wilt a Gourd plant to teach Jonah a lesson which was to have him pass out in the hot sun. And how after Jonah recovered God pointed out what he had had to do to the Gourd and asked Jonah if he was sorry for the Gourd. And Jonah knew the right words and replied that he "was sorry even unto death".                                                                                                                   And as a final word we should be focused at home. We should be concentrating more on native U.S. H5N2 Bird Flu, sister to China H5N1 Bird Flu. As given above reiterating when the mathematical weights are analyzed over a given time span there is nothing remotely conclusive mathematically that H5N1 is more deadly than H5N2.  Additionally China has limited America H5N2 bird flu infecting its flocks, as does Korea and Japan. Probably brought over if not by geese and ducks by captains of U.S. freighter ships who like their eggs fresh. It is surprising China captains of freighter ships who like their eggs fresh have not brought over a limited amount of H5N1 to the U.S. and the geese and ducks also.      James Franklin Lawton      NYS LMSW