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On the wings of geese and ducks there is at a significant level of possibility H5N1(lp) (hp) Bird
Flu will soon arrive and infect in the U.S. It will arrive with infected geese and ducks dropping
in for a free feed with domestic U.S. chickens, ducks and geese. Many millions of Chinese have been infected by this bird
flu. None of these Chinese have died from its (lp) substrain. Eleven Chinese more recently have died infected with
the (hp) substrain, and Chinese in a very small like number have died from the (hp) substrain in the past decade. Thousands of
U.S. tourists based on estimate given number of Chinese with H5N1 antibodies have also been infected by H5N1(lp)(hp) in China open air markets where live chickens, ducks and geese are sold, and none of these U.S. tourists
have died. If you are a U.S. tourist in South East Asia, southern China included, on economy common public transportation you
are likely to have a big fat goose sitting next to you.
There is also (mentioned already) a substrain H5N1(hp) that accompanies this mild substrain H5N1(lp) and that concomitant
sister substrain H5N1(hp) devistates chicken flocks, but it is very very rare for it to infect and kill humans. This
lethal substrain H5N1(hp) has been monitored during this 21st century and in that time it has killed just
over 100 people in the world of billions of people, although it is a devestational killer of chickens. Avian
bird flu H5N1 if it arrives in the U.S. is thus nothing to worry about. The only exception in terms of
worry might be a world war or limited war as example that affects the far northern seas where exploding ordinance
would in a very short span of time pump excessive doses of the warmer gulf stream waters into the fjords of lands
up against the north polar ice cap where migratory birds such as geese and ducks nest causing an "extrordinary"
increase in fjord water temperatures and melting, releasing frozen Mastodon age migratory birds infected with bird
flu, the Mastodon age flu which would recombinate with mild 21st century flu and the migratory birds upon signs
of colder weather, infected by this flu, would carry it south. Prima faci this appears to be what happened bringing
the Spanish Flu in the Fall of 1918 to the world, causing the worst devistational disease we have ever known in
the history of the earth with professional estimates of far over 100,000,000 (one hundred million) people dying
in less than two years span of time. We do not have to worry about warming "trends". They are gradual. They do not
cause extrordinary increase of fjord water temperatures within a span of one year. Thus we do not have to worry about
H5N1 Bird Flu in the absence of a war that causes this phenomena. (
The flu H5N2 is an Americas bird flu and H5N1 is an Asia bird flu. Millions of Asians (forty million Chinese) carry
the antibodies for H5N1(lp) low pathogenic bird flu having been infected with a mild non noticable or hardly noticable
flu, or mild three day flu, which is mainly low pathogenic non killer sub strain H5N1 (when the chickens
come down with the flu people always get the sniffles). China has recently developed an effective poultry vaccine
contra the H5N1(hp) high pathogenic killer strain of H5N1 of both flocks and a rare human, but used as a base its
sister H5N2 low path non virulent sub strain, which prevents the outbreak of high pathology virulent H5N1 lethal flu
and high path H5N2 (both). China has used low path H5N2 as a base for the vaccine rather than low pathology H5N1 probably
with marketing the vaccine world wide (psychological marketable factor) in mind. But that is a guess. H5N2 Americas
bird flu may be superior to H5N1 Asia bird flu as a vaccine preventative. China may have developed a really
good world marketable product in this vaccine. It remains to be seen. H5N1 in its low path substrain is not a killer
but people associate it with the killer substrain H5N1. China can not market a vaccine made of H5N1 in the Americas.
We do not have H5N1 here and do not want to take any chances on using a vaccine made of it it here. There is no high
path virulent (killer of humans) H5N1 strain in India and H5N1 low path (low virulent) is a common bird flu in India. This
is not the case in many Asia nations, where killer strains of H5N1 flu exist. Killer strains of H5N1 Bird Flu must legally
be reported and the flock destroyed. It is not legally necessary to report low path mild H5N1 and which might lead to destroying
flocks infected by it. An advantage of not destroying flocks infected with H5N1 low path is when it infects
it probably offers natural immunity to high virulent H5N1 killer Bird Flu.
In the Americas H5N1 does not infect our poultry flocks and it does not exist in the Americas except in an occasional
wild duck or goose or other migratory bird. Rather in the United States our great battle in the 1980s was with
the virulent high path strain H5N2 the sister of high path virulent H5N1. There is low path H5N2 present in the United
States and Mexico. One or two chickens dead in the coup - always common - may frequently be the result of low path H5N2
infection. We are not required to diagnose, which could lead to reiterate to destroying the flock in these cases.
H5N1 and H5N2, both, when low pathogenic (low virulent) easily infect humans but with few consequences. About 40
million Chinese have been infected with non virulent low path strain H5N1 and carry the antibodies. Some of
the antibodies may also represent high pathogenic killer chicken flu which also gives most people little more than the sniffles
it is believed by some to be the case (unproven). High pathogenic H5N1 will kill a few people. Recently in China
it has killed 11 out of their more than one billion plus population and infected as many as 40. China has seen high path H5N1
come and go before in earlier years. There are no documented cases of H5N2 high path (highly virulent) causing death
to humans in the United States. But then as China has a 400% greater population than the United States with half
of its people keeping chickens in coups and selling them in open markets and shopping and walking down the street with chickens
or goose under arms, and China records about a dozen deaths total for H5N1 high path recently, it would not
be expected in the United States adjusting the statistical weights for meaningfulness putting H5N2 on hypothetical
level with H5N1 in lethalness to humans, that the United States should this 21st century as of year 2006 be expecting
cumulatively more than one tenth of one person to have died from high path H5N2.
I have already mentioned that every year migratory birds return from the northlands to the United States and a
few of them are carriers of H5N1. Later in the page I will explain that a few brown medium size Holland
Pink Footed geese, who find the coldest of the cold permafrost to nest, right against the north polar ice cap, will
always be found in with flocks of other types of geese migrating down in the eastern U.S. It is easy enough to say "why did
they not return to Holland". The same question of my ancestor Maes Van Buren can be asked. Then we would
not have had Martin Van Buren and not have the Democrat Party. But it was not given to be.
To this point H5N1 does not infect the domestic chicken, ducks, or geese of the United States, having
been spread to them by a wild duck or wild goose joining them. Some day it may happen that chicken flocks in the United States will
become infected by H5N1 in this way. Of yet it has not happened. It has had a number of decades to happen with each decade
an equal probability but it has not happened. One of our very best way to prevent this is to invest money to help in the
finding and destroying of domestic chicken, duck and geese flocks in Asia and anywhere else high path H5N1
is infecting, leaving H5N1 low path in place. We have known H5N1 for a long time and it has not infected
United States chickens in that time. But obviously if the high path H5N1 strain builds up in Vietnam chicken, duck and geese flocks with
ducks and geese stopping in for a free feed of chicken food, then in greater numbers these wildfowl will become
infected and if they are carriers and the disease does not kill them there is higher probability H5N1 will be spread
to United States chicken flocks by these migrational waterfowl who sometimes stray far from home. That in itself will
not cause any problems as it will not kill more than seven or eight persons a year in the Americas from what we
know of it.
Rather theorists right now seem concerned that the H5N1 high path Mutation will occur in humans infected, the more
infected the greater the chance of mutation using mathmatical logic, and the Mutation will then spread easily to other humans
by coughing and sneezing. I do not ascribe to the theory that H5N1 high path will take this course
and turn into the Mutation that will take half the world with it and rather down the page I say the Spanish Flu believed
to have mutated from a common and prevalent mild three day flu in the world at the time of the late summer
of 1918 was brought down from up against the north polar ice cap in the permanent permafrost by an unusual melt, under
unusual circumstances (possibly caused by mankind), that disgorged bodies of ancient infected geese which in turn infected
living geese and ducks with Spanish Flu after thousands of years frozen in ice, who returned from the Arctic
stopping in the greater Boston area of the United States where the Spanish Flu epidemic began September 1918. I may be
wrong.
The Vietnam Bird Flu, a world concern this year 2006, (scientific name Avian Flu - non primary species, sub
species or sub type of, strain or substrain) was a problem here in the United States in the 1980s and
was a costly problem. May we call the Bird Flu black widow sisters non primary sub types or strains H5N1 and H5N2,
both, the "Vietnam Bird Flu" - we can not, it will cause indignation. Everyone knows the black widow
sister H5N1 is about to change into the mutation that will destroy the world ten times above a world nuclear war. She
the culpret H5N1 is the deadly black widow sister and not her in the background black widow sister H5N2.
And of course there is not known to be any high pathogenic H5N2 in Vietnam. It is not even indigenous to Vietnam or Asia.
Although there is some about here and there.
Good. O.K. these are opinions based on loose hypothesis. H5N1 high pathogenic is now the Bird Flu. For
now. Probably no Doomsday Flu from H5N1 is going to happen as concerns scientific probability in terms
of humans, but a lot of chickens are going to have to be slaughtered or we will lose even more chickens from disease
and the market price will go sky high. That is what is most likely to happen. But it is not going to happen in the Americas in
terms of H5N1 as it does not exist in our domestic flocks here. In fact at the 99.9% level what most of this is actually
about right now is keeping the price of chicken down and stable for the consumer and providing a stable living for those in
the chicken and egg laying business so as to not to lose their flocks. At least that is the case in China. In China which recently has
lost 11 lives from H5N1 this is the priority - consumer price stability and economic stability fof chicken farmers. Then
comes people. What the true position of China is can be summarized that this commotion about Doomsday Flu is all towards
making a Movie. They do not deny it could not happen either. But first things first. Chickens and then people.
An immense number of chickens in the U.S. in the early 1980s were slaughtered to prevent high pathogenic flock chicken
killer H5N2 from spreading here in this nation. We got it under control in a few years and got rid of it. There
is no medical information on any persons dying in the U.S. of H5N2 high path. The sub strain of H5N2 we battled
in the U.S. was virulent and deadly to chickens. To reiterate there are no confirmed reports of humans being infected by and
dying of high pathnogenic H5N2, but H5N2 has a substrain that is mild and non virulent and that substrain infects
easily and widely with sniffles - then why should not the question, a must, be asked "why then will the virulent
strain not infect"?
Then in a little over a half decade, in the l990s, the black widow sister Bird Flu reemerged as a
problem in Mexico, again H5N2 high pathogenic strain, a devistating killer of chickens. In a few years Mexico had gotten
it under control and gotten rid of it at considerable cost.
The black widow sister Vietnam Bird Flu H5N1 high pathogenic centered in Vietnam presently - where it
is deriving its name from - has emerged in the world prominant a decade after the other black widow sister H5N2
high path was eliminated in Mexico and two decades after she had been eliminated in the United States. And
in its virulent form H5N1 kills half the people it infects. Although to be infected by it is a rarity.
What is the reason for this? Bird Flu is many subspecies of a Flu with a generalized scientific name "Avian Flu".
The common Flu in the U.S. today which kills 36,000 people in this nation each year is a Bird Flu subspecies (Avian Flu
subspecies) we know as the "Hong Kong Flu". But Hong Kong Flu does not kill per 10,000 persons it infects each year that many
people. Hong Kong Bird Flu is a mild flu compared to the current day Vietnam Bird Flu H5N1 high path should it mutate
in humans and become a killer of humans on the level it kills chickens - and H5N1 high path to reiterate is the
black widow sister of the old United States high path Bird Flu H5N2 of the l980s and Mexico high path Bird Flu H5N2
of the 1990s, to reiterate in both cases eliminated by the two nations at great cost.
Fortunately the Bird Flu that infects and kills people with relatively high frequency (the Vietnam Bird Flu infects
humans with rarity) are generally not the sub types or strains of Bird Flues that are killer bird
flues. A historical exception to this is the Spanish Flu (another name Spanish Bird Flu, Spanish Avian Flu). The Spanish
Flu is significantly different than the Vietnam Bird Flue as a subspeces or strain but it is a type of Bird Flu (Avian
Flu).
The Spanish Flu probably came into being 10,000 years ago in geese or ducks or both, or other migratory birds, and disappeared
10,000 years ago into the ice of Spitsbergen up against the north polar ice cap or far northern Greenland directly
west of Spitsbergen and also up against the north polar ice cap, the virus remaining live in the frozen bodies of the
dead birds, untill exceptional warming waters of the west Spitsbergen fjords or far northern Greenland fjords disgorged
these ancient geese in the summer of 1918. A scientific hypothesis presented for this phenomena of the
warm water in the fjords is that the WW1 naval battles raging to the south caused currents to change and a fragment
of warm water current found its way to western Spitsbergen fjords - (and probably to possibly the eastern fjords
of far northern Greenland). Or explosions of Naval munitions in the warmer Gulf Stream waters to the south
could have acted as a "pump" to give the west Spitsbergen fjords a temporary "boost" of warmer waters in terms
of quantities that would normally reach them in a given time span under natural Gulf Stream flow. (Firstly, what amounted for
that periphery polar area a phenomenal rise in water temperature, was measured in the western Spitsbergen fjords
in the Summer of 1918. The air temperatures of Spitsbergen overall remained seasonal during the summer of 1918 but
shortly thereafter Spitsbergen (directly up against the edge of the north polar ice cap so far north that it makes
the north Alaska artic coast line look subtropical in comparison) for a shot period of time became as warm as Berlin.
I have been concerned with specific phenomenal "water temperature" increase for the area as measured for
the waters of the western fjords of Spitsbergen the Summer of 1918. But if you are interested in long
term "air temperature" trends for the arctic ocean and and north atlantic ocean in general temperature
trends access this link http://www.warwickhughes.com/cool/cool13.htm - you will see that "immediately" following the phenomenal rise in the Summer of 1918 western Spitsbergen
fjord water there was an overall Arctic aberrant significant rise in air temperature. On the other hand in the north
Atlantic ocean as measured at Armagh, Ireland air temperatures have not risen more than one degree celcius
in more than two hundred years and the trend temperature increase per year for over two hundred years approximates
for each year the year before cumulatively adding up to not quite one degree celcius increase in 210 years. So on a global
level nothing human seems to be causing a long term global temperature increase. It is nature and God at work.
The world should not expire any faster than he wants it to. But limited to the Artic region of the globe man seems to
have moved some fractional parts of warm ocear currents about - if he is not heating up the Arctic himself. And additionally as
it has been suggested, true or not, exploding naval munitions of WW 1 brought about this Arctic phenomena. But if true
WW 1 did not have any similiar effect on north Atlantic waters as measured at Armagh, Ireland. The phenomena of rising
air temperatures in the Arctic beginning with the end of of WW 1 peaked shortly and tempertures began to drop but then some
time later began to rise again although WW 2 does not appear to be a relevant factor in this second rise in average
Arctic air temperatures. The best guess is that WW 1 exploding munitions reconstructed nature in the Arctic ocean which
in a couple of decades would have returned to where it was before WW 1 but then shortly following WW 1 man began
heating up the Arctic ocean waters himself in terms of various industries which has continued to this day. And
in terms of nesting geese and ducks on Spitsbergen given the phenomenal increase in western Spitsbergen fjord water
(not air) temperature and the effects that had on the wester fjord shoreline the Summer of 1918 the sun was unable to
neutralize ancient "Mastondon" avian flu virus for a better word the Summer of 1918 leaching out
of the freeze and just beneath the shore water level.
Where did this warmer water come from. Below the sea deep ocean volcanic activity is not significantl likely for
the Summer of 1918 and exploding naval munitions to the south fragmenting warm ocean currents and pumping and splitting
them in the direction of western Spitsbergen the likely cause.
It needs to be intensely studied. The Arctic north pole ice cap is very thin being measured in yards of thickness.
Because of its thinness it melts away easily. In fifty years 30% of the north polar ice cap on the periphery has melted
away from a 1% cumulative rise celcius in average temperature over that time span. Because the Arctic ice cap
is so thin if it entirely melts away it will only raise the water level of the oceans by a few inches. However the south polar
ice cap in thickness is measured by miles in places. The south polar ice cap is another question. Probably there is not
danger to mankind if 20% to 30% more of the entire north polar ice cap should melt away - although that is as unlikely
as likely - if the melt is gradual. At the present time the people of the world are in no immediate danger
from a warming trend. Should it continue for more than another fifty years that is a new question that must be considered.
And there is always the mathmatical question of calculus functions as concerns global warming - that is a mathmatical function
that is basically linear for a while but then suddenly begins increasing at a greatly increasing exponential rate. There are
many unknowns in the overall mathmatics of nature. There is not one genius in the calculus of nature presently
living in the world and there never may be. Do what makes sense for the genius does not exist. And hope that a phenomenal
increase in temperature year does not occur, water or air, around the fjords where the geese and ducks nest, too great
for the sun to neutralize the bird flu virus that leach out of the freeze. Should that year happen however another Spanish
Flu is likely and this 21st century from 500,000,000 (five hundred million) to 1,000,000,000 (one billion) persons
in the world will die. The best remedy now is to "chaw tobacco" should a Spanish Flu (a bird flu) strike. Geese and Ducks
defecate in flight on the tobacco leaves and rain, sunlite and warm temperatures move the bird flu virus in the bird
defecation into the leaves where they grow bird (avian) flu virus antibodies, the same process as when a rabid fox licks
a tobacco leaf the tobacco leaf grows mammal rabies virus antibodies. For every one laboratory insertion of
rabbies viruse in tobacco ten billion happen by way of nature. Have faith in God. This is hypothetical now but let us
see what the future brings when science and medicine realizes that God is sometimes above them. Which is why U.S.
doctors during the Spanish Flu epedemic universally turned to the daily tobacco chaw.
It is rare for a highly lethal Bird Flu to infect a human, excluding to reiterate the Spanish Flu, which probably comes
from an age 10,000 years ago. However that said it is believed as the population of people today infected by Vietnam
Bird Flu increases, then concomitantly the chances of a deadly Vietnam Bird Flu Mutation developing from high pathogenic
bird flu in a human who will then spread it also increases. And if this happens the forseeable consequences in death may be
far worse than a world nuclear war. Such a mutation would spread by human coughing and sneezing and easily infect
other persons, death being a highly probable outcome. And already death is a highly probably outcome for
those few people who are catching the Vietnam Bird Flu. However it is rare for people to catch the Vietnam
Bird Flu. But but not impossible with contact with chickens (however China sees a very loose relationship in
terms of chicken farming intense level contact with chickens, ducks or geese and infection by lethal H5N1 high pathogenic.
China does not know why some people catch lethal Bird Flu. At the same time China open air markets are common
and chickens, ducks and live geese are for sale in the market and one can not avoid people carrying them under their shoulder
on the way home and having coffey with goose tucked under an arm at an open street restaurant. It is the same in rural
Mexico. I have caught a couple of geese passing overhead in a passenger car of the Mexico Ferrocarril -
when it was operational - to return to their owners.
This Vietnam Bird Flu Mutation (it would have had a different name) could have come into being from H5N2 high pathogenic
virulent chicken killer flue in the United States in the early 1980s when it was here in this nation and we
were in battle with it, or it could have come into being in Mexico when H5N2 high pathogenic was in that nation
in the 1990s. What is called Bird Flu today could well have been H5N2 high pathogenic, sister of the the
currently well publicised Vietnam -Asia black widow sister H5N1 high pathogenic. It simply may be Global good fortune
that a deadly mutation did not develop from H5N2 in North America in the 1980s and 1990s. And that both
Nations at great cost and with rapidity eliminated the black widow H5N2 high pathogenic strain before it began killing
people - a great span of time for a mutation to develope never existed in the United States or Mexico. High
pathogenic H5N2 exists in the U.S. and Mexico no longer. And we are not certain this lethal Mutation from any strain
of high path bird flu, mutating in a human, will or can develope. It is hypothetical. But considered a significant
possibility at some rational level.
Vietnam Bird Flu H5N1 high patheogenic flu virus is commonly carried by ducks and geese which travel throughout the world.
In turn ducks and geese can spread it to chickens. People on rare occasions get sick with it and die from mainly
contact with chickens, ducks or geese (it is believed, China dissenting, it does not know how) but people do
not spread it to other people often. (actually there are only just over one hundred (100) known cases of H5N1
infection to humans in the world resulting in death and we do not have enough to look at to make adequate judgements
on how it is spread.). In terms of 21st century Bird Flu the writer can not answer with any certainty how less
than a decade after the United States had gotten rid of the black widow sister H5N2 high pathogenic in the l980s, that
same sister reemerging in Mexico in the 1990s, and how a decade after Mexico had gotten rid of H5N2 high pathogenic, the
Bird Flu reemerged as the little known sister H5N1 now high pathogenic in Vietnam - I am just calling
it "Vietnam Bird Flu" as Vietnam seems to be the center of it right now, a focal point. That is a "convenience
name "like the "Spanish Flu" is a convenience name. We do not know the origin of the Spanish Flu. There is a beginning
day and week it began as a flu epidemic in some nation in the world but we have no idea which nation experienced
the first case. Some believe the origin of the Spanish Flu epidemic in terms of the nation it began in
in terms of the first case was the United States. Although we do not know the first nation to be infected in terms
of the first case we do know that Boston was the first city in the United States to be infected by the Spanish Flu in
September 1918.
The origin of the Vietnam Bird Flu of today may be the United States (it is believed by some the U.S. imported H5N1 chickens
to Vietnam during the Vietnam War and others say earlier France had. It was not in Asia at all and was a rare strain in the
west). We can not say absolutely it was not. But probability is way against it. The probability by far is
the first epidemic was in Asia. We must ask ourselves the question, with ducks and geese transporting this deadly
subspecies Bird Flu (strain H5N1 high path Avian Flu) around the world for more than one hundred thousand years why
it suddenly developes in one nation or a few nations. Thus the following are two legitimate of many legitimate questions
to ask: (A). In the nation or nations beginning to spread the Vietnam Bird Flu has there been a change in the chicken
feed? (B). To earn the extra important dollar has the density of dwelling space for chickens increased in
terms of per number of chickens dwelling per square yard of habitation? Let us leave question (A) to someone else untill
later in year 2006 and dwell on question (B). What we do know in the wild animal kingdom of wild animals living on
wild land is that when population density of wild inhabitants increases too much per square mile of land - even when
there remains ample food - disease takes over and there is a "die off" of many of the wild dwellers. Many wild species
die off and many wild species that are left have no species to catch and feed on. And this happens also when campers cause
fires on lands in addition to natures lightning and the wild kingdom moves to another location.
This has been the case this first decade 21st century in the U.S. state of California. And some mountain lions
have turned to eating people having no game left to catch and eat on their range (you can say on their mountain lion
ranch). And a male mountain lion can not enter a bigger mountain lions range having food on it. The mountain
lion leaves markers on his range. A warning for other mountain lions not to cross. Just north of Nogales, Arizona,
U.S., and Nogales its twin adjoining community in Mexico, state of Sonora, the locals notice that the Jaguars each
have their own range. In this far U.S. southern Mexico border area the puma coexists with the Jaguar, his 120
pounds half that of the Jaguar, only because the puma is swifter. See http://www.nylicsocialworkeramazonas.com/id12.html for more on the Jaguar in far south Arizona.
The Jaguars of the southern Arizona-Mexico border do not eat people. You may hike there in the state of Arizona
Coronado Mountains safely. One reason is that there is an abundance of big game in the area and years when game is scarce
it is only a few miles to cross the border into Mexico where families keep an abundance of loose pigs, goats, sheep and chickens.
Only a few dacades past this was the case with families also on the U.S. side of the border, but no longer. And a few
decades ago this was the case with families on the edge of the Los Angeles, California suburbs where they meet the wilderness San
Gabriel mountains of the Sierra Madres. But it is the case no longer. And in a bad game year, based on actual happening, even on
the edge of the Los Angeles suburbs, you may be eaten by a puma.
Regressing back to the question of increased numbers of chickens dwelling per square yard of dwelling space
to earn the extra dollar. Is it the cause of the Vietnam Bird Flu in Vietnam and Asia now. And was it the cause of H5N2
high pathogenic black widow sister of the Vietnam Bird Flu which devistated flocks in the United States in
the 1980s the same U.S. black widow sister H5N2 high path bringing flock devistation to Mexico in the
1990s?
About fifty percent of people in Vietnam who catch high pathogenic Vietnam Bird Flu "die from it". It is premature
to post standbys at schools and colleges to prepare for the Bird Flu. It is senseless. It is the same as saying
from the auditorium podium "look to your right and look to your left as one of you will no longer be here if the Bird
Flu comes. And remember the person at the right and left of you is looking at you". It is extremely rare for this high
pathogenic Bird Flu to infect people, and the rare few who are infected are generally chicken farmers (but China disagrees
and says they can be anybody although total numbers infected amount to a rare few. China is more interested in how low
pathogenic H5N1 Asia bird flu will affect the Americas if it arrives here. Will it be no more than sniffles. Will anyone die
of it.). Basically high pathology Bird Flu confines itself to infecting "birds". But low pathogenic bird flu infects
millions of people. What will be the outcome. To reiterate chicken farmers are who catch and die from it H5N1 high
pathogenic mainly (China dissenting about it being mainly chicken farmers who it infects and saying it can be anybody). And
after they have caught it they do not transmit the disease to other individuals often (China agrees). And reiterating
H5N1 high pathogenic Bird Flu rarely infects and kills anyone (China agrees). Thus if we are putting schools and colleges
on standby for the Bird Flu we are talking about common low pathogenic H5N1 which is common in India and has never killed
a person including any Americans in India. We are talking about "the sniffles". We are not talking about high pathogenic
Vietnam H5N1 killer bird flu. Let us define clearly what we are talking about. Geese and Ducks are likely someday to
bring H5N1 low path sniffles bird flu here to the U.S. We must then leave it in place to shield ourselves from the
H5N1 high pathogenic killer bird flu. The sniffles bird flu of which 40 million Chinese already have had carrying antibodies
for it - but it has killed none. And it will cause students no more than a possible day or two of discomfort. They will
not be bedridden. There should be no apprehension.
That the outcome of the Bird Flu will be the "Mutation" that is feared will develope and will become a
world killer of a half billion people or more - is hypothetical! Vietnam H5N1 high pathology Bird Flu is much more deadly
if in a human it mutates to the Doomsday Flu speculated on than the old Bird Flu we know as the Spanish Flu - which was a
very deadly flu. Right now at present (that hypothetical mutation has not developed yet) only one in ten
thousand of us is in danger of infection when we walk into a high pathogenic Bird Flu infected chicken coup to clean
it out. That is how rarely bird flu infects people at present - it infects birds. Humans have extrordinary
immunity against high pathogenic H5N1. Yet the Spanish Bird Flu was with us only two years before it mutated
to an exceptionally deadly flu (but in reality a lot longer than two years as much earlier it was called the
"swine flu" and in fact it is still with us year 2006 and we mix it into the U.S. Annual Flu vaccine but it's deadly
mutant of late summer of 1918 and onward for two years untill 1920 has disappeared from the face of the earth). The Spanish Flu
in mutation form which was the deadliest world plague on record was a mild bird flu compared to the "expected" Vietnam
Bird Flu mutation - which is far worse than a world nuclear war should it come true about this "deadly mutation"
scientists are worried about. If the exceptionally deadly mutation does develope in a human, one that will easily
infect people far from the chicken coup through human sneezing or coughing then as many as half of everyone
in the world will die given our current state of medicine for curing the disorder some say. What is true is right
now is there is no way to prevent catching it outside of a vaccine - which China says it has now developed for chickens and other
birds and is now working on in terms of a human vaccine for high pathogenic H5N1 should one be needed. Or as
concerns doctors maybe by the former non chawers to take a chaw daily of tobacco as did the doctors treating the
old Spanish Flu (go to http://www.nylicsocialworkeramazonas.com/id21.html . There is very much a dearth of information we know.
Or have we all gone crazy? In the years immediately preceeding 1918 have medical people mixed up another flu with the
Spanish Flu - the Spanish Flu which began its devistation in death in the Fall of 1918. Historically in Spitsbergen (Norway)
by the summer of 1918 official temperature readings of water in the western fjords show it unusually warm
for reasons not understood - although some think the explosives of WW 1 raging in the sea to the south had changed the
currents breaking off and bringing in a fragmentary warm water current to the western fjords and possibly the eastern
fjords of far northern Greenland (a theory). And following relatively quickly the unusual warm summer western fjord
waters of 1918 (in the western fjords of Spitsbergen, summer of 1918, the fijord water warmth buildup can be
termed "extrordinary") Spitsbergen was not long thereafter to become as warm as Berlin. By late
summer beginning late August through early Fall of 1918 it was time for the geese and ducks to begin their migration
south from the far north lands of Spitsbergen and north eastern Greenland, and a trickle began returning the
last week in August. In this artic northern land geese and ducks which died of Bird Flu (Avian Flu) 10.000
years ago can be frozen in the ice and preserved only to be melted out by the exceptional much warmed fjord
waters and air it affects. And migrating ducks and geese would have been infected by their disgorged 10,000 year
old duck and geese ancestor ancient Bird Flu still living - which also infected humans 10,000 years ago. With reduced
duck and geese and human immunity in the 20th century. Is this what happened?
There is a prevailing world line of thought beginning late year 1918 untill present day that the "Three Day Flu"
(called Swine Flu year 1900 and begun to be spoke of as Spanish Flu by year 1917 but still a Three Day Flu no different than
the Swine Flu of 1900, prevalent in years 1916, 1917 immediately preceeding the Spanish Flu beginning
the late summer of 1918, mutated to the Spanish Flu. As concerns the United States "isolated" what we know
as the deadly Spanish Flu (a Bird Flu, Avian Flu) appeared first in the New England states Atlantic coastal city
of Boston in some week in late August early September of 1918. It is not possible to seperate the Spanish Flu
from other flu cases in Boston in the month of September 1918 as in all years in Boston in the month of September flu cases
killed some people, and thus which flu case in Boston the month very late August or very early September 1918 was
the first Spanish Flu case in the United States will always remain impossible to define. We do not bury our dead in
permafrost. But flu case deaths in Boston in the month of September had never before approached in the
20th century 171 deaths as they did in 1918. This extrordinary figure of 171 deaths from flu the month of September
1918 as presented by the city of Boston October 1, 1918 signaled the devistation within a week or two to take
place in the eastern United States. That month October 1918 saw very numerous Cornell University students in New
York State die of flu at their university, and concomitantly very numerous deaths at many other places on the Atlantic
ocean side of the United States, and by the end of October 1918 the Spanish Flu had spread in the United States from
Atlantic ocean to Pacific ocean. To reiterate having had its beginning in the United States in some week on a day in
that week (remaining always unknown) in the month September 1918 in the city of Boston.
Spitsbergen is the nesting grounds of the brown medium size "pink footed" goose (using geese as an example - it can be any
of a number of migratory birds arriving at Spitsbergen in the spring) which arrives in massive numbers at the Spitsbergen
islands in the spring coming from northern and central Europe and returns from Spitsbergen with signs of cold
weather approaching to the British Islands, Holland (Holland Pink Foots account for most of Pink Foots which nest at Spitsbergen)
and Belgium, south Denmark and parts of Germany and France. And always a few pink footed geese are observed mixed with
other geese migrating to warmer weather stopping over in the greater Boston area as they move southward. There
can be a number of reasons for this U.S. phenomena and it is believed on the return to the Artic the following
spring these pink footed geese leave U.S. flocks and rejoin other pink footed geese. To reiterate official
temperatures taken in the Fjord waters of west Spitzbergen in the summer of 1918 showed an "extrordinary" increase
in water temperature, reason unknown, but the scientific reason (a hypothesis) is believed by many to be the
naval munition explosions of WW1 to the south changing the currents thus bringing in a fragmentary warmer water
flow to west Spitsbergen. And it was soon to follow that Spitsbergen up against the north pole polar ice cap became
as warm as Berlin in terms of weather.
Thus what happened the summer of 1918 in west Spitsbergen was the warmer fijord waters caused directly or indirectly
along the western coast the phenomena of ice melt that released the bodies of ancient frozen geese perhaps 10,000 years
old infected by the Spanish Bird Flu and the Avian Spanish Flu virus itself or fragmented ancient Avian Spanish
Flu which recombined with 20th century Avian flu virus, infecting pink footed geese subsequently
returning to their warmer weather homes as cold weather signaled its return to Spitsbergen, and having become infected
by the ancient bird virus disgorged from the ice, spread the great epedemic of the Spanish Flu that killed between
20 million to 40 million in the world and that some estimates say before the end of year 1919 killed
from 50,000,000 (fifty million) to over 100,000,000 (one hundred million) people in the world.
And now on to the black widow sisters, strains (or sub types) of a primary sub type AH5 of Avian flu. Which are
"present day" strains (non primary sub types) of Bird Flu (Avian Flu) and can not mutate back in
time 10,000 years (any more than we humans can return back) to a strain of Bird Flu we know as the Spanish Flu, carried
by ancient geese disgorged from the Artic ice by a warming trend summer of 1918 in western Spitsbergen
fjord waters after 10,000 years being frozen in the ice.
Of the black widow sisters Avian Flu involved in this past three decades current episode build up of potentially
worse than nuclear world war death from Avian virus, black widow H5N2 Bird Flu (Avian Flu) strain is the strain, high
pathogenic virulent, that was found in the United States in the 1980s killing flocks of chickens and in Mexico in the
1990s, and it is an H5N1 sister strain that is high pathogenic virulent being documented as a killer of flocks and human
killer in Vietnam and Asia right now. Both strains can be low path or high path meaning low virulent pathogenic or high
virulent pathogenic in terms of percentage of outcomes of death (the low pathnogenic strains cause no deaths in humans). The
H5N2 strain has shown itself rampagingly high path virulent in terms of flocks in northern Italy and the
H5N1 strain has been universally low path virulent in India. H5N1 in Vietnam right now is high path virulent
and H5N2 in Korea has shown low path virulent pathology. The H5N2 low path strain does infect people in contradiction
to popular conception. It is a sniffles flu the same as low path H5N1. There are no documented cases of H5N2 high path
virulent pathology killing people but much more study needs be done and it as probably as not probably that it can
infect and kill persons rarely, like current Vietnam high path virulent H5N1 strain infects people rarely, perhaps
with a lesser frequency.
The nation of mainland China has developed a low pathogenic strain H5N2 virus base vaccine that prevents high pathogenic
H5N1 and high pathogenic H5N2. It has not been tested on people. (In terms of this low pathogenic H5N2 avian strain I
have no reason to doubt Jia Youling, spokesman for the China Ministry of Agriculture that H5N2 low path virus is
used in the China vaccine to prevent H5N1 high path - refer to China Daily ud 2004-3-16, 23:38 reporter Qinchan, and
also China Peoples Republic, same day. Although H5N2 is a bird flu strain native to the other side of
the globe Korea flocks of domestic chickens, ducks and geese are infected by H5N2 and I assume the case is
the same for some domestic fowl in Guangdong Providence in China where geese produced the H5N2 now used in the vaccine.
Speculating, as there had been a bad problem in Guangdong in 1996 with domestic geese being infected with
lethal H5N1 Bird Flu it is very possible it was noticed geese having H5N2 antibodies were immune from H5N1.).
You may want to do some intensive research here limited to this area.
It should be noted geese have a problem in some areas of China with H5N1 high path lethal infection Bird
Flu. Dr. Guan Yi PhD of the University of Hong Kong 1994-1995 took over 50,000 fecal and other fowl samples from seven
southern China provinces open air markets. Live geese for sale tested 1.9% positive for H5N1, which
is nearly a rate 1,000% higher than live chickens at the same market. Ducks nearly approximatd geese at 1.9%. But basically
it is likely harmless to people being mainly sniffles H5N1 low pathogenic very mild flu which is the H5N1 bird
flu normal for China, impossible to get rid of and indeed one would not want to as it likely affords protection to the
lethal high pathogenic strain of H5N1 also in China. The laboratory report does not give what percentages are pathogenic
virulent H5N1 if any. Millions of people pass through these Hong Kong open air markets each year but but only a few people
in Hong Kong die from H5N1 high path. People using the open air market have been immunized to virulent
substrain high pathogenic H5N1 probably, by the low pathogenic very mild flu H5N1 substrain. As already given earlier
in this page about 40 million Chinese carry H5N1 antibodies from infection by H5N1 low pathogenic. It is a exceptionally
rare however for high path lethal H5N1 to infect people, despite the millions that shop at the China open air markets.
Of the millions who pass through the open air market it will infect only a few people each year. As noted recently
in China only 11 individuals have died of H5N1 and in China 30% who are infected by it die. This
will give you an idea of how commonly exposed to H5N1 tens of millions of people in China are yet are not infected
and die as a result of the lethal substrain of the virus. Looking at the other side of the picture to reiterate people are
easily and widely infected in China by the low path substrain of H5N1 which amounts to a very mild flu. (China to
reiterate also has a vaccine made from H5N1 but it would not find a market here in the Americas even if it prevents high
pathnogenic H5N2. There is no H5N1 in the U.S. and we will take no risks.
Again these are two bird flu black widow sisters (H5N1, H5N2) if we can call them that, strains or substrains
of a secondary subtype of one primary sub type of Avian Virus (Bird Flu Virus). They are not two seperate subspecies
or primary subtypes. That one of the black widow sisters, H5N1 or H5N2, will mutate after infecting some
individual to the Doomsday substrain that easily and with rapidity given sneezing and coughing will infect twenty
percent of the world and kill off half of all it infects can not be dismissed as scientific possibility. But it
is mathmatically probable scientifically the Movie will get there before the mutation. And untill then only
one out of every ten thousand persons who enter the chicken coup to clean it up once the black widow sister high
pathogenics H5N1 and H5N2 have been discovered to infect it, will become infected.. &
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